The 2nd betting choice ran as expected (2nd) 20.7% of the time and ran better than expected 21.6% of the time and ran worse than expected (3rd through 8th) 57.7% of the time.Īs you look through the table you will notice some interesting things: Worse could be anything from 2nd through 8th. The favorites in these 8 horse races won 35.4% of the time and ran worse than that 64.6% of the time. If a horse was the favorite, they couldn't run better than expected (as they were expected to win) and the 8th choice couldn't run worse than expected (it was expected to finish last). The table above shows you how often a horse runs better, worse or as expected. The horse with the lowest odds is the favorite, and the horse with the highest odds was the 8th choice. We wanted to look at each horse in those races based on their rank in terms of their final odds. The only consistent thing was that they had 8 starters. These races contained all tracks, distances, surfaces, classes, etc.
We recently looked at a large sample of data in Angler for races that had 8 horses starting. Favorites will win more often in small fields than in races with a lot of other entrants. Another thing that will obviously make a big difference in the win % of favorites is the number of horses in the race. For example, favorites are more likely to win dirt races than turf races. But, that win percentage can fluctuate based on the distance, surface, class, etc. On average favorites win about 35% of horse races.
0 kommentar(er)
